HS2 and Birmingham Airport
Birmingham Airport could become a realistic alternative to London's increasingly busy airports once HS2 opens, with the planned high-speed railway potentially putting airport passengers less than 45 minutes from central London. Supporters believe the improved connection could transform the Midlands airport from a predominantly regional gateway into an airport serving passengers from across Britain.
For decades, London's enormous aviation market has been dominated by familiar names.
Heathrow.
Gatwick.
Stansted.
Luton.
London City.
But a major new railway could eventually challenge the idea that passengers travelling to and from London need to use a London airport at all.
Following the Government's decision this week to proceed with High Speed 2, Birmingham Airport could find itself much closer to the capital in practical travelling terms.
HS2 plans envisage trains travelling between London and Birmingham Interchange in approximately 38 minutes.
From there, a new automated transport system is planned to carry passengers directly to Birmingham Airport.
The journey from the HS2 station to the airport is expected to take approximately six minutes.
If those plans become reality, Birmingham Airport could effectively find itself less than an hour from central London.
And that raises an intriguing question: could Birmingham help relieve pressure on London's airports?
Prime Minister Boris Johnson confirmed on 11 February that the Government would proceed with HS2.
The decision followed months of uncertainty surrounding the project's escalating costs and whether construction should continue.
The first phase will create a new high-speed railway between London and the West Midlands.
For Birmingham Airport, the decision could prove transformational.
The airport has long argued that HS2 will dramatically increase the number of people able to reach its terminals quickly.
Instead of viewing Birmingham simply as an airport for the West Midlands, HS2 could turn it into a much more significant national aviation hub.
The headline journey time is striking.
HS2 planning puts the journey from London Euston to Birmingham Interchange at around 38 minutes.
The Interchange station will be constructed close to Birmingham Airport, the National Exhibition Centre and Birmingham International railway station.
Passengers would then transfer to a new automated people mover.
That journey is expected to take approximately six minutes.
The driverless system is planned to operate approximately every three minutes and carry passengers along a 2.3-kilometre elevated route.
In practical terms, that could make Birmingham Airport remarkably accessible from London.
The potential connection was even highlighted by the Prime Minister when announcing the Government's HS2 decision.
Boris Johnson told Parliament that passengers arriving at Birmingham Airport would be able to reach central London by train in approximately 38 minutes.
He specifically compared that with the time required to travel from Heathrow into London by taxi.
The comparison demonstrates how HS2 could change the traditional understanding of airport geography.
An airport doesn't necessarily need to be physically inside London to compete for London passengers.
What matters is how quickly people can reach it.
Transport leaders in the West Midlands believe HS2 could help Birmingham Airport take pressure away from airports in the South East.
Laura Shoaf, managing director of Transport for West Midlands, said Birmingham Airport's expansion combined with HS2 represented a major opportunity to help address airport-capacity pressures in the South East.
The argument is relatively straightforward.
If a passenger living in the Midlands has poor public transport access to Birmingham Airport, they may choose to travel south towards Heathrow instead.
Improve Birmingham's connections and some of those journeys could disappear.
That could benefit both regions.
This is one of the more interesting consequences of improved rail connectivity.
Airport choice isn't determined purely by distance.
It depends on available flights, ticket prices and how easily the passenger can reach the terminal.
Someone living in the West Midlands might geographically be much closer to Birmingham Airport than Heathrow.
But if transport connections don't work for their journey — or Birmingham doesn't offer the required flight — Heathrow may still become the preferred option.
That creates additional road and rail journeys towards London.
HS2 could change that calculation.
Better connections to Birmingham Airport could encourage more Midlands passengers to fly locally rather than travelling towards the South East.
The opportunity works in the opposite direction.
If Birmingham Airport can be reached quickly from London, passengers living in the capital could begin considering flights from Birmingham.
That would be particularly attractive when a flight isn't available from a convenient London airport, Birmingham offers a significantly cheaper fare, the departure time is more convenient, or the destination is served directly from Birmingham but requires a connection from London.
Air passengers already travel considerable distances to find the right combination of price and flight.
HS2 could significantly expand those choices.
That depends entirely on where the passenger starts.
Heathrow is physically much closer to central London.
It also has direct rail and Underground connections.
But travelling time to an airport isn't simply about distance.
A passenger in north or central London may find a rapid HS2 journey towards Birmingham surprisingly competitive, particularly if the airport connection is designed as an integrated part of the railway.
However, a passenger living in west London would almost certainly find Heathrow much more convenient.
HS2 therefore won't suddenly make Birmingham the best airport for every London passenger.
What it could do is make Birmingham a realistic option where previously it may not even have been considered.
There is also an obvious limitation.
Heathrow's strength isn't simply its location.
It is the enormous range of flights available.
As one of the world's major international aviation hubs, Heathrow offers connections that Birmingham cannot currently match.
Passengers choose airports because of destinations as well as accessibility.
A 40-minute railway journey is of limited value if the required flight doesn't operate from the airport at the other end.
For Birmingham to take significant numbers of passengers from London airports, improved rail access would therefore need to be accompanied by continued development of its airline network.
This is where HS2 could have a second effect.
Airlines decide where to operate partly by examining the population within an airport's catchment area.
If a new railway suddenly places millions more people within easy reach of Birmingham Airport, the commercial case for additional routes becomes stronger.
Birmingham Airport has said HS2 could increase its two-hour catchment from around 35 million to 45 million people.
That is an enormous potential market.
More passengers can attract more airlines.
More airlines create more destinations.
More destinations attract more passengers.
If that cycle develops successfully, HS2 could influence Birmingham Airport well beyond simply shortening train journeys.
The railway isn't the airport's only major infrastructure project.
Birmingham Airport has outlined substantial expansion plans designed to accommodate future passenger growth.
Its long-term strategy includes improvements to terminal facilities, aircraft stands and supporting infrastructure.
The airport expects its economic contribution to the region to grow significantly as passenger numbers increase.
HS2 is therefore intended to complement a much larger transformation of the airport and surrounding area.
The planned Birmingham Interchange station is strategically important.
It will serve not only Birmingham Airport but also the National Exhibition Centre, Birmingham International station and the wider Solihull area.
The station is planned close to the M42 and will act as a major transport hub.
Passengers arriving by HS2 will transfer onto the automated people mover to reach the airport.
The people mover is planned to run every three minutes and is designed to carry as many as 2,100 passengers per hour in each direction.
That frequency matters.
An airport connection becomes considerably less attractive if passengers leave a high-speed train and then wait 20 minutes for a shuttle.
A service every few minutes should make the connection feel like part of the same journey.
The debate illustrates something that is often overlooked.
An airport's success depends on what happens on the ground just as much as what happens in the air.
Runways and terminals receive most of the attention.
But passengers still need to reach them.
An airport with excellent airline connections but poor surface transport can struggle to realise its full potential.
Conversely, a well-connected airport can draw passengers from surprisingly large distances.
Gatwick demonstrates the value of direct rail connectivity.
Stansted has its dedicated express service.
Heathrow has the Underground and Heathrow Express.
Birmingham hopes HS2 will give it a connection capable of fundamentally changing its position in the UK airport market.
Possibly — but it is important not to exaggerate the effect.
Heathrow handles an enormous international market.
Before the current coronavirus concerns began affecting aviation, Heathrow had been operating close to its runway capacity.
Moving some passengers towards Birmingham could help at the margins.
But Birmingham Airport isn't simply a substitute runway for Heathrow.
The two airports have different airline networks and different passenger markets.
The more realistic argument is that improved Birmingham connectivity could reduce the number of passengers who currently travel unnecessarily towards the South East because their regional airport isn't sufficiently convenient.
That would potentially reduce pressure not only at airports but also on the road and rail networks surrounding London.
This could be particularly important environmentally.
A passenger living near Birmingham who drives all the way to Heathrow creates a substantial road journey before their flight has even begun.
Multiply that by thousands of passengers and the environmental consequences become significant.
If better public transport encourages those travellers to use Birmingham Airport instead, road mileage could be reduced.
Likewise, London passengers using HS2 to reach Birmingham would have a public transport alternative to driving.
The environmental case becomes particularly relevant as the aviation industry faces growing pressure to reduce its carbon impact.
Although Heathrow attracts the most attention, Birmingham could potentially compete with several London airports.
Luton and Stansted serve large numbers of passengers from the Midlands because of their extensive low-cost airline networks.
Gatwick attracts passengers from an even wider geographical area because of its range of destinations.
If Birmingham develops comparable routes and becomes easier to reach, some passengers who currently travel south could remain within the Midlands.
That would represent a major shift in airport catchment patterns.
London passengers already demonstrate a willingness to travel considerable distances for flights.
Someone living in west London may travel to Stansted for a cheap European flight.
A passenger in north London might travel across the capital to Gatwick for a long-haul departure.
Others drive to Luton because the airline or fare suits them.
Airport choice is therefore flexible.
HS2 could simply add Birmingham to that competitive market.
A passenger searching for a flight might eventually compare Heathrow, Gatwick, Stansted, Luton, London City and Birmingham.
That would have seemed an unusual list only a few years ago.
Not every passenger will travel by HS2.
Road transport will remain important.
Families may have substantial luggage.
Several passengers travelling together may find a private vehicle more practical.
Flights may depart before rail services begin or arrive after they finish.
Some passengers live far from convenient railway stations.
And door-to-door transport has an obvious advantage that rail cannot completely reproduce.
Airport-transfer services will therefore continue to form part of the wider transport network even if HS2 dramatically improves rail connectivity.
A 38-minute train journey sounds extremely attractive.
But airport passengers aren't ordinary commuters.
They may have two 23kg suitcases.
Cabin baggage.
Children.
Pushchairs.
Sports equipment.
Or mobility requirements.
Every interchange matters more when travelling with luggage.
The success of Birmingham's HS2 connection will therefore depend not only on speed but also on how easy the transfer between train and terminal actually feels.
The automated people mover will be particularly important in that respect.
Passengers travelling for flights need confidence.
Missing a meeting because a train is late is inconvenient.
Missing an international flight can be extremely expensive.
If Birmingham is to attract significant numbers of passengers from London, the HS2 connection will need to be exceptionally reliable.
Travellers will also need to know how much additional time to allow between arriving at the Interchange station and reaching airport check-in or security.
Headline journey times attract attention.
Real-world reliability determines whether passengers trust the service.
For generations, airport geography has been relatively straightforward.
People tend to use airports near where they live.
High-speed rail complicates that assumption.
Once a train travels at very high speed, geographical distance becomes less important.
An airport 100 miles away but 40 minutes by train may be more convenient than an airport 30 miles away requiring a slow and congested road journey.
This is where HS2 could have its most profound impact.
It won't physically move Birmingham Airport closer to London.
But in practical travelling time, it could make it feel considerably closer.
That could change Birmingham Airport's identity.
Today it is primarily considered the major airport of the West Midlands.
HS2 supporters envisage something broader.
A nationally connected airport serving passengers from the South East, Midlands and eventually northern England.
Birmingham's central geographical position gives that idea some logic.
The challenge will be converting railway connectivity into airline connectivity.
Passengers need both.
None of this will happen quickly.
HS2 is one of Britain's largest infrastructure projects.
Construction will take years.
Costs remain controversial.
The railway has strong supporters and equally strong critics.
And the precise way Britain's aviation market develops over the next decade is impossible to predict.
But the Government's decision this week removes one major uncertainty.
HS2 is going ahead.
For Birmingham Airport, that opens an opportunity that could fundamentally alter its role.
The airport may remain physically in the West Midlands.
But if passengers can travel between its HS2 station and London in little more than half an hour, the traditional boundary between London airport and regional airport becomes much less obvious.
One day, a London passenger searching for a flight may discover that the most convenient departure isn't from Heathrow, Gatwick, Stansted or Luton.
It could be Birmingham.
HS2 could eventually give passengers another option when choosing how to travel between London and an airport.
For now, London's major airports remain Heathrow, Gatwick, Stansted, Luton and London City, each serving different parts of the capital and different airline markets.
London Airport Transfer provides pre-booked private hire journeys to and from London's airports, including airport-to-airport transfers and door-to-door journeys between terminals, hotels, businesses and residential addresses.
Rail and private hire serve different passenger requirements.
A high-speed railway can be particularly attractive for an individual passenger travelling relatively lightly between major transport hubs.
A pre-booked private hire vehicle provides a direct journey from the passenger's address to the airport terminal without changing trains or carrying luggage between services.
That can be particularly useful for families, groups and passengers with several suitcases, as well as journeys taking place late at night or early in the morning.
If HS2 eventually makes Birmingham Airport substantially more accessible from London, airport passengers will simply have another option.
And greater choice — whether travelling by rail, taxi or pre-booked private hire — can only make Britain's increasingly connected airport network more interesting.
Written by London Airport Transfer for passengers travelling to and from London airports.