Heathrow third runway faces climate risk
Heathrow Airport's proposed third runway could face significant new environmental requirements after the UK's independent climate advisers warned that airport expansion must not lead to an increase in overall aviation emissions.
The debate surrounding the future expansion of Heathrow Airport has intensified after the Climate Change Committee (CCC) said the aviation industry needs a credible plan for reaching net zero before further airport growth can proceed.
The warning comes as plans for a third runway at Heathrow move back into focus. The proposed expansion could substantially increase the airport's capacity, potentially allowing it to handle around 756,000 flights and 150 million passengers.
The UK has a legally binding target to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.
However, aviation remains one of the more difficult sectors to decarbonise because conventional aircraft continue to depend heavily on fossil-based jet fuel.
The Climate Change Committee has warned that, under existing policies, there is currently “no credible pathway” for Heathrow expansion to be accommodated within the UK's climate targets. It also says the country does not yet have a credible overall plan for reducing aviation emissions.
That does not necessarily mean airport expansion is impossible. Instead, the committee argues that growth would need to be accompanied by stronger measures ensuring the aviation industry takes responsibility for the emissions it produces.
One of the biggest implications for passengers could be the future cost of flying.
Measures required to reduce aviation's environmental impact are likely to cost billions of pounds, and the CCC believes much of that cost should ultimately be borne by the aviation sector rather than general taxpayers.
Those costs could subsequently be reflected in ticket prices.
The committee estimates that by 2050, policies designed to bring aviation towards net zero could add as much as £150 to a return flight to Alicante and approximately £400 to a return flight to New York. It argues that introducing measures progressively could prevent passengers from experiencing sudden increases in fares.
These figures are projections rather than announced ticket-price increases, and the Government has not established that passengers will be charged these specific amounts.
Aviation's transition towards lower emissions is expected to depend on several technologies and policy measures.
These include more fuel-efficient aircraft, improvements to UK airspace, greater use of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), carbon-removal projects and measures intended to manage future growth in demand for air travel.
Airlines UK argues that the industry is already investing in newer aircraft, SAF and improvements to airspace. The organisation says affordable sustainable aviation fuel, airspace reform and carbon removals should form key parts of aviation's route towards net zero.
Another possibility discussed by the Climate Change Committee is a system under which people who fly frequently contribute more towards the environmental cost of aviation.
One potential approach would be a frequent-flyer tax, although no such system described in the report has been confirmed as Government policy.
The committee pointed to figures suggesting that around a third of international flights are taken by just 5% of people who travel overseas five or more times per year.
Any future system could potentially include exemptions or different arrangements for essential domestic connections, including routes linking Great Britain with Northern Ireland and remote island communities.
Heathrow maintains that airport expansion and environmental commitments do not have to be competing objectives.
The airport said expansion must deliver both economic growth and progress towards net zero, arguing that many of the technologies required to reduce aviation emissions already exist.
Heathrow says it intends to continue working with the Government and aviation industry to expand the use of these technologies and investigate how money already collected through aviation-related carbon taxes could help finance the transition.
The Department for Transport has also made clear that any Heathrow expansion proposal would have to comply with the UK's net-zero targets.
According to the department, the Government is investing £219 million in sustainable aviation fuel production and a further £43 million in cleaner aviation technologies.
It also says Heathrow expansion could contribute approximately £40 billion to the economy and support as many as 60,000 local jobs.
The Government says it will consider the Climate Change Committee's recommendations alongside responses received through the Heathrow expansion consultation.
For travellers, there is unlikely to be an immediate change when booking a flight from Heathrow.
The bigger issue is what happens over the coming decades.
If Heathrow's third runway progresses, the aviation industry could face tougher requirements covering sustainable fuel, carbon removal and other measures designed to compensate for or reduce emissions.
Some of those costs could eventually find their way into airline ticket prices.
At the same time, an expanded Heathrow would provide significantly greater flight capacity and potentially open opportunities for additional destinations and services.
The challenge for policymakers will be determining whether that growth can be achieved while keeping the UK on course for its legally binding climate commitments.
Written by Airports Transfer for passengers travelling to and from London airports.